Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 215.827767 263.208716 322.241728 402.597989 511.385526 6.570063e+02 8.729354e+02
2025-06-01 155.505504 206.634476 278.403906 390.737581 570.741362 8.653263e+02 1.427703e+03
2025-06-08 122.775327 172.428504 247.857075 378.035295 614.587962 1.069936e+03 2.160931e+03
2025-06-15 111.111872 164.279179 251.334562 416.860871 760.021155 1.553400e+03 4.086638e+03
2025-06-22 97.222336 148.975324 238.337760 420.800425 839.669226 1.967351e+03 6.681904e+03
2025-06-29 88.069729 139.396968 232.465122 435.794668 952.209957 2.585986e+03 1.203863e+04
2025-07-06 78.678004 127.574560 219.566122 431.356913 1014.880590 3.135274e+03 2.003839e+04
2025-07-13 75.469431 126.257783 226.544667 474.333263 1239.772386 4.669632e+03 5.383266e+04
2025-07-20 72.062561 123.905586 230.771083 512.451277 1483.586608 6.907922e+03 1.841860e+05
2025-07-27 68.313945 120.231589 231.291373 541.279437 1724.454392 9.994275e+03 9.598605e+05
2025-08-03 64.297480 115.384607 228.134988 558.780300 1941.645282 1.400218e+04 1.453156e+07
2025-08-10 60.100556 109.567792 221.570304 563.855103 2113.341549 1.878086e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 55.335206 102.172885 210.449575 552.827590 2210.998155 2.387899e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 50.827689 94.831462 198.310411 534.950197 2262.308437 2.928323e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 46.832399 88.164556 186.811392 515.828919 2293.928258 3.538039e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 46.319245 89.224915 195.621643 574.568931 2935.756831 7.911041e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 43.888875 85.576135 191.084216 580.572232 3213.313654 1.272552e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 42.219247 83.512807 190.601567 603.490644 3696.353126 2.622140e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 39.825263 79.457138 183.753533 596.696071 3897.669874 4.318730e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 39.554309 80.514840 192.088187 662.897356 5095.180219 2.759590e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 38.978320 80.744013 198.026139 722.342038 6506.579625 1.063176e+08 NaN
2025-10-19 38.052014 79.972799 200.713731 767.736283 7992.072206 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 36.818647 78.268630 200.086288 795.472641 9377.791731 NaN NaN